Some Brief Speculation on Iran's Leverage Play

speculation on why it keep refusing a deal, from mid July.

Though the US has been burning through an inordinate number of high value munitions, and doing so at a rate faster than it can replace them, Iran isn't and has never been in a position where it can grind down or attrit the US, never mind win kinetically.

The US isn't in a position where it can't just come back and start bombing again.

It's most potentially effective option has always been asymmetric cost imposition, but that requires being able to hold out long enough to keep a functional blockade up (regardless of who is imposing it) long enough to strain and potentially deplete the reserves of Gulf-dependent East Asian states, and stress the deficit tolerance of Gulf exporters.

afaik Japan and RoK have ~200 days in SPR. China isn't in immediate danger either.

Singapore, India, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Pakistan are all potentially exposed with 20-70 days of reserves. though some, like Singapore have more options than others.

But there are countermeasures in play; the UAE can move 1.5-1.8 mil bbl/day through its bypass pipeline and the expansion is 50% built. KSA can move 4.7-5 mil bbl/day through Yanbu (and can potentially increase loading capacity).

This of course doesn't offset export disruptions completely, but it does extend how long Iran would need to keep a blockade going, and there are still deep strategic reserves in play that can still be released to stabilize prices.

Whether they can hold out long enough remains to be seen, but oil leverage through disruption potential seems to be something they’re keenly aware of.